A PRAYER FOR NORTH KOREA

1 North Korea

WHO IS THE LEADER OF NORTH KOREA?

Kim Jong-un is the leader of North Korea. Modern day North Korea was founded by Kim Jong-un’s grandfather, Kim Il-sung, and the family are worshipped as gods. Anyone who dares to believe in a higher authority than the Kim family is considered an enemy of the state.

HOW MANY CHRISTIANS LIVE IN NORTH KOREA?

We estimate that there are between 200,000 and 400,000 Christians in North Korea. However, it’s difficult to get an exact figure, as Christians in North Korea must keep their faith completely secret.

Of those, we estimate that between 50,000 and 70,000 Christians are imprisoned in terrible labour camps – simply for choosing to follow Jesus. And yet, despite the risks, the church in North Korea is slowly but steadily growing.

WHY ARE CHRISTIANS PERSECUTED IN NORTH KOREA?

Christians are considered enemies of the state because they dare to believe in a higher authority than the Kim family. The North Korean regime demands absolute loyalty and obedience, and the Kim family are worshipped like gods. Portraits of the Kim family must be hung in all homes and schools. The first words parents must teach their children are ‘Thank you, Father Kim Il-sung’.

WHAT IS LIFE LIKE FOR CHRISTIANS IN NORTH KOREA?

Christians must keep their faith completely secret. If a Christian has a Bible, or part of one, it will be carefully hidden and only read when the believer is sure they are alone.

Most Christians do not even tell their own children about their faith until they are older teenagers for fear that they may let something slip. Read Sang-Hwa’s story of discovering her family’s secret faith as a child.

If a Christian is discovered in North Korea, they will be arrested and imprisoned in one of North Korea’s terrible labour camps. In the camps, Christians are worked liked slaves and often tortured; most are never able to escape.

And yet, our brothers and sisters in North Korea have decided that knowing Jesus is worth the risks they face. The church in North Korea is not only surviving, but growing – and they have great hope for the future. One Christian has shared: “One day the borders will open and we will unite with the South Korean and the Chinese church to bring the gospel to some of the darkest places on this earth.”

And even in the darkness of the labour camps, God is at work. Read Hea Woo’s story of planting a church in a labour camp toilet. “It’s impossible to imagine a car without an engine. In the same way, we cannot imagine how we’d be able to survive withOUT your concern, support and love for our believers.“- North Korean believer 

HOW CAN I HELP CHRISTIANS IN NORTH KOREA?

You can give to provide vital support

Open Doors secret workers are smuggling in enough food to keep 60,000 believers alive in North Korea, as well smuggling in illegal Bibles, broadcasting Christian radio programmes into North Korea, and running safe houses at the Chinese border for those who are able to escape.

Every £59 could provide a monthly relief pack to keep a North Korean family alive.

You can tell others

The story of Hannah, a North Korean believer who survived a labour camp, is included in our free Can you believe it? pack. Order yours and inspire your church or small group with stories of faith, hope and love.

You can pray

Brother Andrew, the founder of Open Doors, says, “Our prayers can go where we cannot… There are no borders, no prison walls, no doors that are closed to us when we pray.” You can’t be with your North Korean brothers and sisters in person, but you can stand with them in prayer.

A PRAYER FOR NORTH KOREA

Lord Jesus, please protect those who follow You in North Korea; especially those who suffer in labour camps and prisons. Protect Open Doors secret workers as they smuggle in vital support. Please work in the heart of North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-Un, and give him revelations of You. Lord, please break the power of evil in this country, so that Christians may be free to worship you. Amen.

North Korea

Kim Jong-un begs North Koreans for cash to keep his dad’s body frozen in ice

Stephen White & Matt Acton 14 hrs ago

Despot Kim Jong-un is “forcing” factory workers to stump up to keep his dead ancestors embalmed – and on display to the public.
North Korea is struggling to afford the cost of preserving the corpses of their former leaders, Kim Il-sung and his son Kim Jong-il.
So Supreme Leader Kim is expecting his impoverished citizens to pick up the £320,000-a-year bill.
Trump and Kim Jong Un  meet in North Korea

The embalmed bodies of Kim’s grandad and dad are on display in the capital Pyongyang’s Kumsusan Palace of the Sun.
But money is tight with the United Nations sanctions that have been imposed to curb Kim’s weapons programs – preventing the rogue state trading with other countries.
Kim’s regime is now asking factory staff to pay up and receive a certificate of loyalty in return.

But one report claims that the people are not happy with the plan.
The source said: “Some people think it is ridiculous how the authorities are ignoring their livelihoods while trying to raise money to keep dead bodies from rotting.”
News outlet Radio Free Asia reported: “There was a ceremony to award certificates for the Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il Fund to factory representatives.
Gallery: Things you may not know about North Korea (Photo Services)On average, North Koreans are two inches (five centimeters) shorter than South Koreans, according to researchers at the Sungkyunkwan University in Seoul, South Korea. The World Food Programme attributes this to poor diet during childhood. According to the organization, the growth of over a quarter of the children is stunted due to food shortages.
“They gave the certificates to party members and workers who donated money to show their loyalty.
“It will be used to help with the upkeep of the Palace of the Sun.”
The source said a speech, given in the province of North Pyongan, encouraged people to learn from the loyalty of the donors and to help by participating in raising funds.

But it added: “The party forced all workers to make regular ­contributions to the Palace of the Sun, saying they would give commendations and ­preference to donors.
“They claimed that regular loyalty donations will go into the fund, which will honour the great leaders who ­contributed their lives to the prosperity of their country and the happiness of our people.

Free Leah

Churches worldwide held prayers on 25 March in response to a call to prayer issued bythe Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) for the release of Leah Sharibu, the Christian girl from Dapchi, Nigeria, who is still being held by the Boko Haram terrorist group for refusing to renounce her faith in exchange for freedom.
On 21 March, the al-Barnawi faction of Boko Haram returned 104 of the 110 girls they had abducted on 19 February from the Government Girls Science and Technical College in Dapchi, Yobe State. They did so following an agreement that saw armed forces withdraw from the town, allowing the terrorists unhindered access.
As well as confirming that five of their fellow abductees were dead and had been buried in the bush, returnees said Leah Sharibu had been “held back on religious grounds” due to her refusal to renounce her faith and wear a hijab. Her mother, Rebecca Sharibu, was informed that Leah had already boarded the vehicle bound for Dapchi along with others, but was told to disembark after refusing to recite the Islamic profession of faith: “They said my daughter would only be brought back home the day she knows how to recite Kalima shahada.”
In an interview with Nigerian media, one of the girls speculated that she and the others may have been released “because we are Muslims and they felt it was right for them to free us so that we will not suffer”.
As reports circulated on 24 March of soldiers withdrawing from Dapchi town and Boko Haram militants on the move, many anticipated that Leah was about to be set free. Speculation was heightened further when the Inspector General of Police (IGP), Ibrahim Idris, appeared to confirm that her release was imminent in an interview given to journalists during his visit to the Military Command and Control Centre in Maiduguri, Borno state. However, when the release did not occur and Leah’s father, Nathan Sharibu, confirmed his daughter was “yet to return”, the police media office issued a statement on 25 March claiming the IGP had been “misunderstood and misquoted.”
Calls continue to be issued for the Buhari administration to secure Leah’s immediate release. Rev Dr Jeremiah M Gado, president of the Evangelical Church Winning All (ECWA), to which Leah and her parents belong, issued a statement saluting her “courage, doggedness, and faith” and condemning “in strong terms any attempt to forcefully convert anyone from one religion to another.”
On 26 March, the Congress of Northern Nigeria Christians (CNNC) 19 states and Abuja said that while its members rejoiced that nearly all the Dapchi girls had been released, they were “heavily saddened” that Leah “is been held because of her faith.” In a statement issued on 23 March, CAN called for “total re-organisation of the security agencies aligned with professionalism that will make them respond rapidly to security challenges in any part of the country”, and the creation of “a high power judicial panel to investigate the abduction of the schoolgirls with a view to unmasking those behind the abduction and make them face the full wrath of the law.”
On 22 March, the European Union (EU) Spokesperson for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Catherine Ray, commended the Nigerian government for the release of the 104 Dapchi girls, and said: “We renew our solidarity with all the girls still held captive and call for their liberation. … All young people have a right to safe education, and the EU will work with Nigeria in supporting efforts to secure this objective.”
Mervyn Thomas, Chief Executive of Christian Solidarity Worldwide (CSW), said: “Our prayers are with Leah and her family as they await her return. Given Nigeria’s ethnic and religious diversity, we remain perplexed at her apparent exclusion, on account of her religious beliefs, from the deal that secured the release of the other girls. It is vital that last weekend’s rumours of her imminent release do not divert international attention from her case and hamper efforts to ensure her release. There must be no let-up in pressure being brought to bear on the militants holding her. CSW also continues to call on the Nigerian government to ensure that every child is free to pursue an education without fear.”

Churches worldwide held prayers on 25 March in response to a call to prayer issued by the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) for the release of Leah Sharibu, the Christian girl from Dapchi, Nigeria, who is still being held by the Boko Haram terrorist group for refusing to renounce her faith in exchange for freedom.

On 21 March, the al-Barnawi faction of Boko Haram returned 104 of the 110 girls they had abducted on 19 February from the Government Girls Science and Technical College in Dapchi, Yobe State. They did so following an agreement that saw armed forces withdraw from the town, allowing the terrorists unhindered access.

As well as confirming that five of their fellow abductees were dead and had been buried in the bush, returnees said Leah Sharibu had been “held back on religious grounds” due to her refusal to renounce her faith and wear a hijab. Her mother, Rebecca Sharibu, was informed that Leah had already boarded the vehicle bound for Dapchi along with others, but was told to disembark after refusing to recite the Islamic profession of faith: “They said my daughter would only be brought back home the day she knows how to recite Kalima shahada.”

In an interview with Nigerian media, one of the girls speculated that she and the others may have been released “because we are Muslims and they felt it was right for them to free us so that we will not suffer”. 

As reports circulated on 24 March of soldiers withdrawing from Dapchi town and Boko Haram militants on the move, many anticipated that Leah was about to be set free. Speculation was heightened further when the Inspector General of Police (IGP), Ibrahim Idris, appeared to confirm that her release was imminent in an interview given to journalists during his visit to the Military Command and Control Centre in Maiduguri, Borno state.  However, when the release did not occur and Leah’s father, Nathan Sharibu, confirmed his daughter was “yet to return”, the police media office issued a statement on 25 March claiming the IGP had been “misunderstood and misquoted.”

Calls continue to be issued for the Buhari administration to secure Leah’s immediate release. Rev Dr Jeremiah M Gado, president of the Evangelical Church Winning All (ECWA), to which Leah and her parents belong, issued a statement saluting her “courage, doggedness, and faith” and condemning “in strong terms any attempt to forcefully convert anyone from one religion to another.”

On 26 March, the Congress of Northern Nigeria Christians (CNNC) 19 states and Abuja said that while its members rejoiced that nearly all the Dapchi girls had been released, they were “heavily saddened” that Leah “is been held because of her faith.” In a statement issued on 23 March, CAN called for “total re-organisation of the security agencies aligned with professionalism that will make them respond rapidly to security challenges in any part of the country”, and the creation of “a high power judicial panel to investigate the abduction of the schoolgirls with a view to unmasking those behind the abduction and make them face the full wrath of the law.”  

 

Religious freedon in China

Chinese state media agency Xinhua announced on 21 March that the United Front Work Department, an agency of the Communist Party of China (CPC), will now oversee ethnic and religious affairs in the country. These changes are part of a restructuring of party agencies in China, which place the Chinese government more directly under Party control.
Previously, religious affairs were managed by the State Administration of Religious Affairs (SARA), and registered religious organisations were overseen by state-sanctioned associations. The United Front Work Department will now absorb SARA, effectively giving the Party direct oversight of religious affairs. The United Front Work Department will also oversee the State Ethnic Affairs Commission and the Overseas Chinese Affairs Office.
Christian Solidarity Worldwide’s Chief Executive Mervyn Thomas said: “Many religious believers in China, including Christians, are already concerned about tightening control over religious activities. These changes will do nothing to allay their fears. Under Xi Jinping control of religious life has become a new priority for the Communist Party of China, and so far this has been manifested through the curtailing of the right to freedom of religion or belief for both registered and unregistered religious communities, including Protestants, Catholics, Buddhists and Muslims. We call on the Chinese authorities to protect the right to freedom of religion or belief for people of all faiths in China, in all parts of the country, and to release those detained in connection with their peaceful religious practice.”
Officials say the changes are aimed at the centralisation of leadership and will help to consolidate the Party’s direction on religious affairs. However, analysts suggest that these changes indicate that the Party sees the control of religious affairs as essential to maintaining and expanding its power, and could give rise to a situation in which the Party leadership may bypass laws and regulations.
The merger of SARA with the United Front is part of tightening control of religion or belief activities and communities under President Xi Jinping. On 1 February 2018, revised Regulations on Religious Affairs came into effect, which included further restrictions on religious practice, including online religious expression, and contained special provisions on national security and foreign connections. The Regulations continue to make registration with the government mandatory: communities which do not register, such as unregistered ‘house churches’, have been pressurized to register through harassment, eviction, intimidation and the detention of leaders.
Even before the regulations came into effect, churches and other religious communities reported an increase in violations of the right to freedom of religion or belief, including the demolition of religious buildings, and the harassment and detention of religious believers accused of belonging to ‘evil cults’.

Vietnam Human Rights

On Thursday 5 April, Vietnamese human rights laywer Nguyen Van Dai was sentenced to 15 years in prison for ‘carrying out activities aimed at overthrowing the government’ under Article 79 of the Vietnamese penal code.
Many of you will remember praying for and sending cards to Nguyen Van Dai, who was arrested on 16 December 2016 and has remained in prison without trial for over two years. As a Christian human rights lawyer he provided advice and representation to victims of human rights abuses – including religious freedom abuses – across Vietnam. Because of this work, he has been repeatedly harassed and intimidated by the Vietnamese authorities and has previously spent four years in prison.
Lawyer Dai was one of six defendants on trial: others included pastor and activist Nguyen Trung Ton and legal expert Nguyen Bac Truyen. Pastor Ton and Mr Truyen were sentenced to 12 years and 11 years in prison respectively: all of them will have a chance to appeal their sentences

Free Alimujan Yimit

 

Christian Solidarity Worldwide (CSW) is calling for a judicial review in the case of Uyghur Christian Alimujan Yimit, who is currently serving a 15-year prison sentence for “illegally providing state secrets to foreign nationals”.
Alimujan Yimit (also written Alimjan Yimit or Alimujiang Yimiti) is a Uyghur Christian from Xinjiang in Northwest China. In 2009, he was convicted of “illegally providing state secrets to foreign nationals” and is currently serving a 15-year prison sentence. Mr Yimit has denied these charges. Those familiar with the case believe his detention is connected with a set of earlier charges put forward by the Kashgar Municipal Bureau for Ethnic and Religious Affairs in Xinjiang, relating to his “illegal” religious activities as the leader of an unregistered church.
The United Nations Working Group on Arbitrary Detention has rendered the opinion that Mr Yimit has been arbitrarily detained.
A Chinese author close to Mr Yimit’s family claims that his case could be reopened in connection with China’s nationwide anti-corruption campaign, which has resulted in the ousting of officials who handled Yimit’s case. CSW has not yet been able to verify this report.
Religion is a sensitive issue in Xinjiang. In 2015 and 2016 CSW continued to receive reports of restrictions on religious activities and expression in the region, including bans on civil servants and students fasting during Ramadan, restrictions on dress and appearance with religious connections, such as head coverings for women and long beards for men, and convictions for religious meetings outside designated venues. In August 2016, Radio Free Asia also reported that authorities were asking school pupils in Xinjiang about their families’ religious practices and telling them not to engage in religious activities.
CSW’s Chief Executive Mervyn Thomas said, “CSW has campaigned on Alimujian Yimit’s case for several years and continues to be concerned about his conviction and detention, which the UN has declared to be arbitrary. We believe the charges against him are groundless and that he is being penalised for his peaceful religious activities as an unregistered church leader. We urge the authorities to re-assess his case thoroughly, impartially and without delay, with a view to securing his unconditional release. We further call on the government to ensure that any persons found responsible for Yimit’s wrongful imprisonment and/or ill-treatment in detention are held accountable and to ensure that Yimit’s current conditions in detention comply with international standards.”

North Korea: ‘Lord! Help

World News

North Korea: ‘Lord! Help!’
Hannah Cho* tells her story of faith in God despite horrendous persecution.
World Watch Monitor

photo: iStock
After the Korean war, public religion was discouraged. The local church was turned into a school and Hannah remembers that her Christian mother prayed at home while the family kept watch for informants.
The cough signal
‘If anyone came close, we’d cough and she’d stop praying,’ Hannah said. ‘Sometimes my father was annoyed with her and didn’t want her praying in the living room, so she went outside, even when it was snowing.
Hannah wanted to understand her mother’s faith, but she spoke so fast when she prayed that it was difficult to understand. ‘All we could make out was “Hananim, Hananim!’ [Lord! Lord!], Help!’ she said.
‘We had no idea who this ‘Hananim’ was. My daughter even asked her one day why she wouldn’t simply visit this guy if he was that important to her. My mother replied: ‘One day I will.’
‘Because of my mum’s prayers, I was never as indoctrinated by the Juche [self-reliance] ideology as others,’ Hannah said. Hannah’s mother said nothing to her about her Christian faith until her marriage aged 23.
Leaving for China
After Hannah’s mother died, she and her family decided to leave North Korea for China. ‘My eldest daughters were first to flee, but they were betrayed by the broker. When we didn’t hear from them, my husband went to China to try to find them. Meanwhile, I took care of my two youngest children at home. My husband didn’t come back; a year later, I went to look for them all in China. At first, I couldn’t locate my husband. I prayed with the only words I knew: ‘Hananim, Hananim!’ Finally, I found my husband’s relative and he connected me with my husband, but my daughters were still missing.’
All converted
When the family were reunited after searching in China, they started to attend the church of a relative, where they all converted to the Christian faith.
‘We had seen my mother’s faith, but now we understood it,’ Hannah said. ‘We felt peace in our hearts and unexplainable joy. It was so refreshing, as if the specks in my eyes had been washed away and I could finally see God. Now I could follow him like my mother had. Our faith grew very quickly because we had been prepared all our lives for this moment.’
Arrested and sent back
‘But soon we were discovered by Chinese secret agents and arrested,’ Hannah recalled. ‘We were sent back to North Korea. We witnessed terrible things. A woman in prison was pregnant by a Chinese man. Race is very important in North Korea. When she gave birth the guard ordered her to kill her baby, but she couldn’t. The guard threatened another woman, telling her he would let her live if she killed the baby. He put his gun to her head and the inmate had no other choice but to strangle the baby until he died. And we had to watch.’
‘My husband told the guards he’d become a Christian. After he saw what they did with the baby and the guards threatened to kill his family, he had to tell them the truth. After his confession, all four of us were locked up in solitary confinement – a small cage. We didn’t receive any food or water and couldn’t sleep.
‘Prisoners in solitary confinement were badly beaten. The more they tortured my husband, the harder he defended his faith. He yelled: “If believing in God is a sin, I’d rather die! Just kill me! It’s my mission to live according to God’s will!”
‘Each time he spoke out, they beat him up as if he was an animal. His flesh was torn and ripped. When he lost consciousness, they woke him and started again.
‘I was dehydrated and beaten until I was unconscious too. When I woke up, I was dragged back to a regular cell with my daughter and other inmates. Then they beat me in front of them. All my daughter could do was cry silently, which she did day and night.
Praying in prison
‘We prayed throughout our time in prison. When we were granted an amnesty and released, we didn’t recognise each other due to the torture. My husband couldn’t stand up due to his injuries. When we walked out of the prison that night and were finally free and alone, we quietly sang a hymn.’
The family have not been able to reunite though, and Hannah’s husband died soon after leaving prison.
‘My mother only taught me one prayer. But I still pray it every day, for my family and for my country: “Hananim, Hananim! – Lord, Lord, please help!”
* Name changed for security reasons

New Camp for Political Prisoners Discovered in North Korea

 

New Camp for Political Prisoners Discovered in North Korea

November 22, 2016 by Jannelle P in Asia

The Human Rights in North Korea Committee reports the discovery of a new kwan-li-so, the name North Korea uses for political labor camps from which there is no escape. The official name of the camp is unknown, so the researchers call it Ch’oma-Bong, after the name of a nearby village. Though the camp was initially built over a decade ago and has recently been expanded, it is still one of the smaller camps. As far as North Korean camps go, it appears to be fairly well maintained. There is no way to determine the prisoner population, but the recent construction of over 54 new housing units suggests significant growth. Detainees, and possibly civilians, work mainly in agriculture and mining around the camp. It’s likely that prisoners are required to do the majority of the dangerous work in the mines.

Ch’oma-Bong is located only 45 miles northeast of the capital Pyongyang. A portion of the camp’s security fence is shared with infamous Camp 14. Two high security compounds have been built, which suggests that “high value” prisoners are being kept there. There are no roads leading up to the security guard posts, which indicate that they patrol largely by foot. The camp is connected to a railway station located just over a mile away.

North Korea has led the World Watch List for 14 consecutive years now. According to 2016 WWL information,

Kim Jong-un has continued to consolidate his power, and no changes or improvements have been seen over the past year. Ideology again trumped everything as could be seen in the celebration of the ruling Korean Workers Party’s 70th anniversary in October 2015. North Korea remains an opaque state and it is difficult to make sense of most of the news pouring out of the country. This is even truer when it comes to topics like human rights or the situation of the Christian minority. Christianity is not only seen as “opium for the people,” as is normal for all communist states, it is also seen as deeply Western and despicable. Christians try to hide their faith as far as possible to avoid arrest and being sent to labor camps with horrific conditions. Thus, one’s Christian faith usually remains a well-protected secret, and most parents refrain from introducing their children to the Christian faith in order to make sure that nothing slips their tongue when they are asked.”

Though the Committee did not specify that Christians are among those in the detainment camp, manybrothers and sisters in Christ in North Korea are imprisoned in kwan-li-so facilities like this one. Please pray for the people held here. God knows those who are His children.

Our Heavenly Father, who upholds the cause of the oppressed and sets the prisoners free, we pray for our fellow Christians in North Korea, imprisoned for their faith in Christ. Sustain them, Lord. Be their strength and joy in this earthly suffering. Encourage them with Your Word and Presence when their faith wanes, when loneliness sets in and when intense suffering is inflicted on them. Give them opportunity to share their faith boldly but wisely with other prisoners. May Christ be evident in their lives, not only to the prisoners, but also to the guards, and may You use their stalwart faith to draw many to Yourself. Turn their eyes from this earthly suffering to the glory set before them. In the name of Jesus, who has set us free from bondage to life, that we might be called His brothers. Amen.

Why North Korea sanctions are unlikely to produce desirable results

Why North Korea sanctions are unlikely to produce desirable results

For multiple reasons, there is little reason to be hopeful of positive results

Andrei Lankov

August 16th, 2016

As of late, the issue of sanctions has been at the front and center of all discussions regarding North Korea. Because of well-founded disappointment in the ‘soft-line’ approach – centered around negotiations and mutual concessions – an unavoidable result has emerged for many: that sanctions are now “the only game in town”.

Despite this recent shift in opinion, I cannot be enthusiastic about the tightening sanctions on North Korea, which are firstly difficult to implement and, secondly, unlikely to produce desirable results – even if properly implemented

This position – which I recently articulated in an interview with RFA in Washington – has consequently invited some criticism, notably from Joshua Stanton, an experienced and observant North Korea watcher who has very different views from mine on this issue.

This lengthy piece is, therefore, in a sense an indirect response to Joshua Stanton’s criticism – “indirect” because, instead of arguing point by point, I will reiterate my arguments about the inefficiency of sanctions in a more systematic manner.

Chinese boat sailing along Yalu River, adjacent to DPRK | Picture: NK News

HURDLES TO IMPLEMENTATION

To start with, North Korea sanctions don’t work. To put it in a more cautious way, so far they have failed to produce any noticeable impact on the state of the DPRK economy or the lifestyle of common North Koreans or members of the elite.

The international sanctions regime was first introduced by the UN Security Council in 2006, at the time when the North Korean economy began its slow recovery from the 15 years of crisis experienced after the collapse of the communist bloc. Yet despite ever-tightening sanctions, the ten years that since passed have been a time of steady economic growth and significant improvement in the living standards for a majority of the North Korean population.

The ten years that since passed have been a time of steady economic growth and significant improvement in the living standards for a majority of the North Korean population.

The inefficiency of those sanctions has been once again demonstrated by the results of Resolution 2270, which was adopted by the UN Security Council in early March 2016. This resolution envisioned sanctions of hitherto unprecedented severity, including, for example, a complete or partial ban on mineral exports from North Korea. However, after nearly half a year of the sanctions being implemented, it is still “business as usual” in North Korea. Such vital economic indicators as grain market prices and market exchange rates for foreign currencies have remained virtually unchanged, while most of the construction projects (including resource-wasteful hallmark projects in Pyongyang) are still continuing apace.

There are many reasons why initial UN sanctions and those outlined by Resolution 2270 have been so inefficient, but the major role is played by the uneasy and controversial attitude of China.

When from time-to-time the Chinese government expresses its support for some sanctions or criticizes North Korean policies on nuclear and missile issues, there are outbursts of joy in Washington and other Western capitals where people start saying that “finally the Chinese are in the same boat with us”. But such optimism has so far always been proven to be misplaced, for the Chinese are not in the same boat with the United States and they are unlikely to share this proverbial boat ride in the foreseeable future.

There is little doubt that China is seriously annoyed by North Korea’s nuclear brinksmanship and its nuclear and missile program as an indirect but significant security threat. However, on the list of the problems the Chinese government has to deal with, this particular danger is not very high. For China, any possible change in status quo on the Korean peninsula constitutes a potential challenge, and this is well understood in Beijing.

From decades of painful experiences, the Chinese have learned that the North Korean government is remarkably indifferent to minor pressures, so Pyongyang reacts to outside demands only when it faces a mortal threat. China, having a near complete monopoly on North Korean foreign trade, is in a position to create a crisis of such magnitude that it would indeed put in danger the survival of the DPRK economy and – perhaps – even reverse its policy on the nuclear issue. Indeed, if China stops all trade and dramatically reduces the number of North Koreans residing and doing business in China, this would wipe out the North Korean economy in a year or two.

China does not need regime collapse, revolution, and anarchy in a nuclear country located on its borders

However, such a crisis is likely to produce results which will not serve China’s long-term strategic interests. It is possible that the North Korean government would yield and indeed surrender its nuclear program, but it is even more likely that it will remain stubborn to the bitter end, leaving the crisis to trigger a revolution. However, this is clearly not what China wants. China does not need regime collapse, revolution, and anarchy in a nuclear country located on its borders. And, of course, it is not very enthusiastic about the emergence of a unified Korea, which is likely to be democratic, nationalistic, and friendly to the United States, Beijing’s major strategic adversary.

Thus, one should not be surprised that the Chinese are using their trade, economic exchanges and aid to North Korea in a very measured manner. They sometimes decrease the amount of economic exchange and giveaways, but it is usually done for symbolic purposes to indicate Chinese dissatisfaction with particular North Korean actions.

And it seems that this is exactly what we see now again: after a few months of a tough approach, China appears to be getting softer on Pyongyang. While this turn is currently being brought about by the general deterioration in Beijing-Washington relations and emergence of the THAAD deployment issue, it is nevertheles something that was going to happen anyway.

Targeting only elites in North Korea is difficult | Picture: E. Lafforgue

ELITE ONLY SANCTIONS?

Proponents of sanctions are likely to reject what has been said above, claiming that the major goal is not to damage the North Korean economy nor to make the life of common North Koreans more difficult. Instead, they will claim, it is rather to create uncomfortable conditions for the North Korean elite so they will start considering a change of their policies in order to have their life comforts returned to them. To simplify things a bit, it is assumed – or hoped – that if top decision makers are deprived of their Hennessey cognac, overseas travel and Mercedes Benz luxury cars for a sufficiently long period of time, they will start considering the denuclearization of their country.

Such logic would possibly work in most authoritarian states, where the ruling elite does not face an existential threat. Therefore in an average dictatorship, elite dissatisfaction might lead to a palace coup or revolution. But such political changes are unlikely to produce a wholesale replacement of the entire ruling elite, for while former colonels might become generals after revolutions, the overall elite change little. Just look at the Soviet Union: as of early 2016, only four of all leaders of post-Soviet States are neither former Soviet-era officials nor officials’ children.

This is not the case in North Korea, however, since the existence of a rich, free and highly seductive South Korea means that any serious internal disturbance there will likely result in regime collapse, soon followed by absorption of the North by its rich twin state.

In other words, unlike a majority of dictators’ henchmen in other countries, North Korean elite members understand that in case of even a successful coup, the winners will face too high a risk of rapidly losing everything as a result of instability, a popular uprising and potential unification (a cross of East German and Romanian scenarios).

They need stability, and, if worst comes to worst, they also need nuclear weapons to safeguard themselves against foreign powers

Taking this into consideration, these people are significantly less likely to start conspiracies – even if they are indeed deprived of their usual nightly glass of Hennessey cognac. They need stability, and, if worst comes to worst, they also need nuclear weapons to safeguard themselves against foreign powers being involved with their domestic crisis, Libya style. Thus in order to ensure stability, and stay alive, they can survive without a daily glass Hennessy cognac.

A poster promoting a ‘strong and prosperous’ economy | Picture: E. Lafforgue

TARGETING THE ECONOMY?

So let’s talk about a more realistic and tested model of sanctions – those which target the economy at large and whose (usually unstated) aim is to decrease the living standards of the general populace in order to create some discontent, hence putting the government under political pressure.

Such sanctions have been tried many times, from Serbia to South Africa. In most cases, they were not remarkably efficient, but there have been cases when sanctions seemingly made a great contribution towards desirable change. However, there is a tendency which is often overlooked; that sanctions have worked much better in countries which were democracies or semi-democracies, or where the common people had at least some opportunity to express their discontent with the government’s policy.

Indeed, such sanctions usually work in an indirect way, by making the lives of the common people more difficult, in some cases being without daily bread, in others, without the opportunity to buy a car every few years. All the pressure is built with the hope that discontent can crystalize into all kinds of opposition movements. And, if they are given the luxury of relatively free elections, citiznes become more likely to vote for opposition candidates, as was the case in Serbia and South Africa, for example.

However, this model is not applicable to North Korea.

North Koreans have no way to influence their government’s decisions or even register their dissatisfaction with government policy. They vote in elections with claimed 100% approval rate, and most of them cannot even think about any kind of open civil disobedience.

We have seen how it worked back in the late 1990s when the country faced a grave shortage of food and basic necessities. At least half a million people starved to death during the so-called ‘Arduous March’ of 1996-1999, but their deaths had little, if any, impact on government policy. Indeed, Kim Jong Il and his advisors did not abandon their goals of developing nuclear weapons and missile-based delivery systems, nor did they introduce reforms which, if applied correctly and timely, could have saved most –if not all – the lives lost during the famine.

At least half a million people starved to death during the so called ‘Arduous March’ of 1996-1999, but their deaths had little, if any, impact on the government policy

Of course, North Korean society has changed much since then, so widespread starvation might indeed lead to a revolution, for nowadays citizens are significantly less docile and much better informed about the possible alternatives. However, this is a risky bet, especially if we take into account that an economic crisis will kill many people before it can lead to a revolution.

This is the reason why economic sanctions so far have remained unsuccessful and the North Korean economy continues to perform at a modest, but acceptable level.

This is not to say that harsh economic sanctions do not make sense at all, for such measures might make sense if your goal is denuclearization at any cost. However, if your goal is to improve lives of common North Koreans, this is clearly not the way to go. Fortunately, due to the position of China and other reasons described above, sanctions are not going to drive the North Korean economy to the brink.

Capitol in DC | Picture: Flickr Creative Commons

SOME SAD CONCLUSIONS

It is clear now the dominant mood in Washington and other world capitals is in favor of sanctions, so a sanctions-centered policy is likely to continue for a long time, perhaps many years to come. No amount of debate is likely to change this fact – especially since such a policy sells well with voters, creating a false and misleading impression that a principled and morally correct stance has been taken, and “something is being done” about North Korea and its nuclear threat.

Furthermore – as the experience of Cuba sanctions has demonstrated – even a long-term absence of political effect resulting from the sanctions regime is not going to discourage proponents, who will probably keep saying that “results are just beyond the corner”. In the case of Cuba, such figures were making claims like this for more than six decades, or a period of two generations.

Therefore, we have to accept that we are going to live in a sanctions-dominated world, and find ways to encourage desirable changes within it, even when the environment is harsh and unproductive. But sanctions are not conducive for policies which could probably be significantly more successful, such as cultural and personal exchanges which familiarize North Koreans with the outside world and help them realize that they live in a remarkably inefficient and backward society.

While programs targeting refugees might still be compatible with sanctions, working with the still loyal subjects of the Kim family might be a lot more difficult. Unfortunately, academic and personal exchanges are usually frowned upon by hard-liners who tend to believe that such programs ‘reward’ the North Korean dictatorial regime by inviting their students – who will be scions of the elite – to study in Western schools or encourage other exchanges between North Korea and the outside world. This ability to nearly freeze exchanges and thus reduce the information in-flow to North Korea is a major negative side-effect produced by the excessive adherence to the sanctions regime.

However, as I have said, sanctions are likely to remain part of the American and, broader speaking, Western policy for the foreseeable future. So we have to live within this, unfortunately.

Main picture: NK News

By :

Andrei Lankov

August 16th, 2016

North Korea test fires ballistic missile: Seoul

North Korea test fires ballistic missile: Seoul

North Korea on Wednesday test-fired a ballistic missile towards the Sea of Japan, South Korea’s defence ministry said.

• Posted 03 Aug 2016 08:32
• Updated 03 Aug 2016 08:56

North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un inspects a surface-to-surface medium long-range strategic ballistic missile test in North Korea in undated photo. (Photo: AFP)

SEOUL: North Korea on Wednesday test-fired a ballistic missile towards the Sea of Japan, South Korea’s defence ministry said, in an apparent reaction to the planned deployment of a US missile defence system.

The missile was launched from near the western city of Unyul at around 7.50am Wednesday (6.50am, Singapore time), it added.

The test follows the launch of three ballistic missiles on Jul 19 in what the North said were simulated nuclear strikes on the South.

Pyongyang has carried out a series of missile tests this year in defiance of tough UN sanctions, and vowed to take "physical action" against the planned deployment of a US missile defence system in the South announced in July.

UN resolutions prohibit North Korea from developing ballistic missile technology.

Pyongyang has repeatedly warned of pre-emptive nuclear strikes against the South and US targets, although the main focus of its nuclear weapons programme is to develop a credible strike threat against the US mainland.

A series of missile tests this year aimed at backing up that threat led to an agreement between Seoul and Washington to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defence, or THAAD, by the end of the year.

North Korea-US tensions had already been stoked by Pyongyang’s fury at Washington’s decision to personally target leader Kim Jong-Un with sanctions related to human rights abuses.